China's Perilous Attempt to Acquire Unwanted Regional Power
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China's Perilous Attempt to Acquire Unwanted Regional Power |
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China's Perilous Attempt to Acquire Unwanted Regional Power
China is an undesirable neighbor that has historically been tolerated by neighboring nations but is no longer so today.
John Mearsheimer describes a global chessboard in which states maneuver to secure power; attaining the position of "king" in a region is essential prior to pursuing the global throne; however, India stands in the way.
China's increasing involvement in Afghanistan, exemplified by its acceptance of the Taliban envoy and infrastructure agreements, may be interpreted as calculated chess moves. Although resources may be a consideration, China's endeavor to establish itself as the preeminent power in Asia may be more significant.
Due to its complicated past and ongoing instability, Afghanistan presents formidable obstacles for its neighboring countries. Serious concerns have been expressed regarding human rights and the resurgence of extremist organizations under the Taliban's rule. After more than two years of negotiations, Xi's administration unexpectedly appointed former Taliban spokesman Bilal Karimi as its first official ambassador to Beijing.
The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs conveyed false information and explicitly stated that the acceptance of the Taliban ambassador did not signify Beijing's official endorsement of the current Afghan administration.
Nevertheless, Western nations are uneasy with the notion of China and Afghanistan engaging in diplomatic amicability.
The geopolitical landscape of South Asia underwent a profound transformation with the United States' withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, which generated a vacuum of power and uncertainty. In an effort to address this vacuum, China, an emerging international power with deep-rooted interests in the area, has initiated negotiations with the Taliban government while advancing its own economic, geopolitical, and strategic objectives in Afghanistan.
The potential for instability and the resurgence of militant groups, such as the Uyghur separatists of East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), are China's principal geopolitical concerns in Afghanistan.
In the event that a Taliban-led Afghanistan fails to maintain control, such factions could flourish, posing an immediate threat to the security of China's western borders and its anti-Muslim regime. Furthermore, China endeavors to counterbalance the influence of the United States in the region and establish itself as a credible regional power with the capacity to foster stability in the area.
By tactfully interacting with the Taliban, China can gain a degree of leverage and potentially mold the trajectory of Afghanistan's future. Afghanistan possesses extensive mineral resources, such as rare earths, lithium, and copper, which are vital to the technological progress and infrastructure endeavors of China, including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Although past mining endeavors in Afghanistan encountered obstacles, the Taliban's readiness to collaborate with China offers a favourable circumstance for economic involvement. China has already made commitments to provide humanitarian assistance and has indicated interest in making investments in infrastructure initiatives, which could potentially alleviate the war-torn nation's economic hardships.
The oil extraction from the Amu Darya basin was the subject of a contractual agreement signed in January of the previous year between the Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co (CAPEIC) of China and the Taliban-led administration. With a 25-year duration, the agreement is subject to CAPEIC's $540 million investment spread across three years.
China has increased its imports of Afghan pine nuts and granted zero-tariff treatment to 98% of Afghan commodities since July 2022. The objective is to foster greater economic integration between Afghanistan and China by eliminating trade restrictions on Afghan products.
The yearly success of trilateral meetings between Afghanistan, China, and Pakistan may lend credence to the notion that Kabul would be an effortless location to incorporate into the Belt and Road Initiative. Despite this, insurmountable barriers remain, as the risk to Chinese nationals conducting business in Afghanistan continues to escalate.
Further Chinese security forces will be deployed to the Khunjerab Pass in the Pamir Knot in an effort to advance China's geopolitical objectives in Central Asia and connect the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with Afghanistan.
The strategic interests of China in Afghanistan are intricately linked to its more extensive aspirations in Central Asia. A stable Afghanistan would promote investment and commerce throughout the region, thereby expanding the economic and political influence of China and advancing the Belt and Road Initiative. |
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