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| Name | CPI Data is in and New Projected COLA Cost of Living Adjustment/ Benefit Raise |
| Video Uploader | Video From Veterans InfoTap |
| Upload Date | This Video Uploaded At 12-06-2024 15:43:44 |
| Video Discription | 2025 Social Security COLA Forecasts Recede Slightly As we approach the first month where Consumer Price Index inflation data will really count, the two primary monthly forecasts for the 2025 Social Security cost of living adjustment both backed their predictions down slightly based on the CPI data released this morning. are now independent after retiring from The Senior Citizens League last year, brought her prediction for next year’s adjustment down to 3% from 3.2% last month—a stark contrast as her forecast had been rising through the first four months of the year. Her previous estimates have gone from 1.4% in January to 1.75% in February, then to 2.4% in March, 3.0% in April and 3.2% in May. How well does this estimate really reflect the typical rising costs of older consumers in 2024? Johnson said the answer has to do with the portion of income that older consumers spend on things like housing, groceries, and medical costs. She notes the CPI-W can undercount when compared to spending patterns of older consumers Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), which means it can subsequently underpay Social Security recipients. The CPI-W, which is used to calculate the COLA, assumes that older adults spend about two-thirds of their income on housing, food and medical costs. In reality, older consumers spend about three-quarters of their income on these costs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics expenditure weights. “This disparity suggests that my COLA estimate, which is based on the CPI-W, may be undercounting real senior inflation by more than 10%,” Johnson said. Per this morning’s monthly press release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the CPI-W increased 3.3% over the last 12 months. For the month of May, the index decreased 0.1% prior to seasonal adjustment. The CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.3% in April. Over the last 12 months, the broader all-items index has also increased 3.3% before seasonal adjustment. Today’s new report is being interpreted as a sign that inflation is cooling again, and it could influence Federal Reserve officials as they set out a future path for interest rates. This after initial projections from experts for a steep decline in inflation in 2024 have needed revision since the start of the year. Starting in July, the CPI figures will actually begin to impact what the 2025 COLA ends up being. The official 2025 COLA will be calculated based on the average rate of inflation using the CPI-W during the third quarter (July, August, and September) of this year, which is compared against the third quarter from the prior year. That final official Social Security COLA raise for next year is expected to be announced on Oct. 10, 2024. |
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