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| Name | Animation of the demographic transition model and population growth & decline |
| Video Uploader | Video From Geography Lessons |
| Upload Date | This Video Uploaded At 30-09-2018 12:16:33 |
| Video Discription | To compare the development of countries, often used indicators, such as average income, concern economic development. Indicators on the level of mortality and birth also tell us something about the development of a country and are therefore useful indicators. Two frequently used indicators are the birth rate and the mortality rate. The birth rate starts with the number of live births in a year. Because there are more people living in one country than in another, more children are probably born in that country. That is why we calculate the birth rate per 1000 inhabitants. In this way, countries can be compared. We do this in the following way. The Netherlands had 16.979.120 inhabitants in 2016 and 172,520 babies were born in that year. We divide the number of babies by the number of inhabitants and multiply by 1000 to calculate the birth rate. We therefore divide 172,520 by 16,979,120 and we multiply by 1000. So, the birth rate of the Netherlands in 2016 was 10.2. The mortality rate is calculated almost in the same way, but here we share the number of deaths by the inhabitants. In 2016, 148,997 people died in the Netherlands. We divide 148,997 by 16,979,120 and multiplie it by 1000 and then it appears that the mortality rate of the Netherlands in 2016 was 8.8. The natural population growth is the difference between the birth and the mortality rate. 10.2 - 8.8 is 1.4. The natural population growth in the Netherlands in 2016 was therefore 1.4. The birth rate and the mortality rate show us a lot of development in a country, because they develop over time. We can show this development in the demographic transition model. Demos means people and graphically a description. The demographic transition model thus shows a change in the characteristics of the birth and mortality rate. We can show the demographic transition model as a graph, in which the lines represent the birth rate, the mortality rate and the total population size. The model consists of five phases. If a country is very poor and hardly developed, both the birth and mortality rates will be very high. This is phase 1. The mortality rate can reach 40 and the birth rate even something higher. This means that an average of 40 people die each year per 1000 inhabitants. That is because the health care is still poorly developed. People get a lot of children, so the children can take care of the parents when they’re old and there are still few contraceptives available. Nowadays there are actually no countries anymore that meet this description. When a country starts to develop, the quality of health care increases. People are being vaccinated, better doctors and more hospitals are available. This reduces the mortality rate. This is phase two. Because the birth rate still remains high, there is a huge natural population growth. This increases the total population size. The poorest countries in the world meet this description, such as Angola and Chad. It is important for these countries to continue to develop so that the population growth will decline! In phase three there is already a low mortality rate, but also the birth rate declines. Contraceptives are more available and because child mortality is falling, people need fewer children who can take care of them later. Girls also go to school much longer, which leads to a lower birth rate. Because there is still a big difference between the birth and mortality rate, the population continues to increase, but the increase is declining. Many countries that have developed quite well already meet this description, such as Indonesia, South Africa and Mexico. In phase 4 there is a low birth and mortality rate. The natural population growth is low again, as a result of which the population size hardly grows. Many developed countries meet with this description, such as the Netherlands. In phase 5 the mortality rate increases and becomes higher than the birth rate. For the first time in the history of a country it has to do with a natural population decline instead of growth and so the total population size decreases. This happens when the population is getting older, so that more and more people die. Only a few of the most developed countries meet this description, such as Germany. The demographic transition model helps us to compare the development of countries and shows us which demographic developments a country will experience in the future. |
| Category | Education |
| Tags | demography | demographic transition | demographic transition model | birth rate | crude birth rate | death rate | crude death rate | mortality rate | crude mortality rate | economic development | health care | child mortality | fertility | fertility rate | development | geography | population growth |
