Video Discription |
The government faces tough challenges. Bringing down inflation to RBI’s threshold of 4% from elevated 5% levels, addressing unemployment both in urban and rural India, and reducing fiscal deficit – or the difference between the government’s expenses and revenues – to 5.1% of the GDP, while keeping the Indian economy on the 8% growth glide path. So, what can the government do in this Budget to address the above and does Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman have an ace in her bahikhata that can ease the tax burden on the middle class. Well – perhaps she could, and I’ll tell you how. But first – let’s see how the Budget can address pressing issues at hand. Inflation stemming out of rising food prices is a supply side issue. In a monsoon-reliant agriculture sector, it is tough for the fiscal policy to influence food prices. Instead, the government can put more money in the hands of farmers to supplement their income. Remember, the very first economic decision that Prime Minister Modi took after resuming office last month was the roll out of the 17th installment of PM Kisan, amounting to 20,000 crore rupees. PM Kisan is likely to see a further uptick in the upcoming budget, along with more incentives for the farm sector like an increase in outlay for irrigation projects and fertilizer subsidies. Next, the question of employment. The government is clear that rural unemployment can be checked by moving the youth away from the farms and into factories. Manufacturing is a focus area and there is a geo-political advantage India has with western tariffs on China's low-cost products. The budget should revise tariff on electronics component imports especially for smartphone manufacturing, making components like circuit boards price-competitive when compared to China and Vietnam. At the same time, the government will have to offer lower corporate tax to new manufacturing investments, like it had intended to do with EV factories. On the urban front, greater push on ease of doing business, coupled with policy interventions like IT parks and tax sops for Global Capability Centres should be on the anvil. Educated youth should get a chance to find a white-collar job closer home and get included in the tax net. Add to that, skilling for semiconductor design and AI-driven tech should see greater push. For the GDP glide path to stay firm at 8% growth, the government will continue investing in infrastructure. The already allocated 11.11 lakh crore rupees could see another top up, and schemes like PLI, a firm policy on electric, hybrid and flex fuel vehicles could see more investments by the private sector – all aiding the GDP story. Finally – the fiscal deficit target! That’s the elephant in the room. The government’s main source of revenue is tax – individuals, corporations, stamp duty, capital gains, as well as indirect taxes like GST. For the government to continue spending on the farm sector and infrastructure development, while keeping fiscal deficit in the narrow lane, it will need money. And that money comes from the taxes we pay on pretty much everything. But this time – there are two big opportunities that the government can clinch to provide some relief to the taxpayer. First, RBI’s dividend bonanza of 2.1 lakh crore rupees, and next – India’s inclusion in global emerging market bond indices: both JP Morgan where India got included on 28th June and the upcoming Bloomberg bond index. Passive inflow of funds into government securities to the tune of another 25 billion dollars or approximately 2.1 lath core means that the government can plan to offset the burden on taxpayers by almost 4.2 lakh crore rupees. Give or take, that’s almost three months worth of GST collection. So, can the government cut taxes? It makes sense for the government to propel the consumption story further to add the profitability for the industry and well as GDP growth. But will FM do it? Well, that’s something we will find an answer to only on July 24th when the Budget is likely to be tabled.
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