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| Name | Russia's Grand Strategy and Ukraine - Is Putin's war already a strategic failure? |
| Video Uploader | Video From Perun |
| Upload Date | This Video Uploaded At 19-02-2023 11:23:21 |
| Video Discription | After a year of hard fighting there are a rush of observers trying to make sense of the current balance of power in Ukraine. The focus in often on (often small) movements in the frontlines, casualties, or the performance of particular platforms and systems. Those things matter, but wars are not generally fought to take individual trenches or solely to inflict casualties. They are fought for strategic objectives. In this episode I dig into Russia's history of Empire, its modern strategic objectives, and try to assess whether or not the war in Ukraine represents a success or failure by Russia's own chosen metrics (as far as they can be determined). My suggestion is that in repeating a number of the mistakes previously made by leaders of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, it can be argued that Putin has already condemned the Russian federation to a strategic reverse. What remains to be seen, is whether Ukraine can win a victory from Russia's defeat, or if it will be left to lose as well. Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU Corrections/Caveats: This content represents an attempt to divine Russian Strategic intent in Ukraine on the basis of public statements, official media and published Western research - but it is impossible to definitively prove what Putin's goals were in invading Ukraine. Many of the presented opinions have a relatively low confidence level. At one point I refer to this invasion as an event which has done more to galvanize Ukrainian nationalism than any of the past 100 years - that was unjustified hyperbole - the statement should instead be "of the post Soviet era" or words to that effect for reasons that I hope are obvious. Sources & Reading: Russian State Media highlighting the role of the Primakov Doctrine: https://tass.com/russia/756973 Russian State Media on the annexation of Kherson and other regions: https://tass.com/politics/1517899 Carnegie Endowment on the Doctrine: https://carnegieendowment.org/files/Rumer_PrimakovDoctrine_final1.pdf William C. Wohlforth - The Perception of Power: Russia in the Pre-1914 Balance https://www.jstor.org/stable/2010224 UN Statistics on Donbas civilian casualties: https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/conflict-related-civilian-casualties-ukraine-december-2021-enruuk DNR figures on losses as a result of military activity (civilian and military) https://eng.ombudsman-dnr.ru/the-overview-of-the-current-social-and-humanitarian-situation-in-the-territory-of-the-donetsk-peoples-republic-as-a-result-of-hostilities-in-the-period-17-and-23-december-2022/?__cf_chl_tk=D.CE95NCUbzAikL1zEk8.Mj8MKlv3wsbLFN1_N3Eux8-1676799261-0-gaNycGzNC_s References to visually confirmed losses are references to Oryx Data Pew Research on opinions of Russia among selected European political party voters: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/09/23/among-european-right-wing-populists-favorable-views-of-russia-and-putin-are-down-sharply/ Pew Research on opinions on Russia by selected national populations https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2022/06/22/ratings-for-russia-drop-to-record-lows/ New Czech president on NATO expansion: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64455121 EGF Poling on opinions on the US as leading global power: https://www.axios.com/2022/06/16/countries-prefer-us-china-superpower-poll Timestamps: 00:00:00 — Russian Grand Strategy 00:01:56 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT 00:03:03 — A NATURAL SUPERPOWER 00:04:04 — A Strong Hand 00:06:10 — The Same Old Errors 00:06:46 — LOSING THE EMPIRE 00:07:26 — A Power On The Rise 00:10:41 — BROKEN SICKLE 00:11:48 — History Rhymes 00:13:57 — What Held It Together? 00:15:09 — THE LOST 90s 00:15:16 — Russia's Potential 00:15:50 — Oligarchisation & Decay 00:17:04 — RUSSIAN GRAND STRAT & EURASIANISM 00:18:16 — From Dugin To Primakov 00:20:39 — The Primakov Doctrine 00:25:41 — THE ROAD TO CRIMEA 00:26:18 — It Was A Different Time 00:28:33 — The Cost Of Crimea 00:29:56 — THE LAST CHANCE 00:30:08 — The State Of Play 2022 00:32:10 — Throwing The Dice 00:32:29 — UKRAINE & STRATEGIC DISASTER 00:36:25 — Defining The Goals 00:37:36 — RUSSIAN VICTORY AS DEFEAT 00:39:05 — Halting NATO Expansion & Weakening The Alliance 00:41:04 — A Statement Of Intent 00:45:11 — How's That Influence In The Post Soviet Space 00:45:50 — "protecting The Donbas" 00:48:21 — Demilitarising Ukraine & Repressing "nationalism" 00:50:49 — A "neutral" Ukraine? 00:51:53 — Value Of The Annexed Regions 00:53:11 — Russia's Economic Future 00:54:50 — Russia's Military Potential 00:58:02 — THE RISK OF CATASTROPHE 00:58:25 — All Of That Assumed Russia Won 01:00:06 — Destabilisation & Exhaustion 01:00:29 — Russia Diminished 01:01:11 — THE FINAL ROLL OF THE DICE? 01:01:16 — Russia Has Always Bounced Back? 01:03:30 — THE WAR CONTINUES? 01:04:39 — Russia Losing Does Not Mean Ukraine Has Won 01:06:02 — The Fight For The Future Isn't Settled 01:06:52 — CONCLUSIONS 01:07:59 — CHANNEL UPDATE |
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