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While Russians have made gains on land, they may as well have lost their dominance and security in the Black Sea for the foreseeable future. According to Kyiv Post media outlet, Ukraine’s special services aren’t slowing down. In June, they sank a Saturn-type tugboat and struck multiple speedboats at once. Their weapon of choice is the combined drone attack — the David to Russia’s Goliath, and now the backbone of Ukraine’s Black Sea strategy.
“The Russian Navy’s sphere of influence in the Black Sea has been significantly reduced, and the whole world can see this today,” Andrii Yusov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence told the Kyiv Independent.
Russia began the war with a formidable Black Sea fleet and all the Ukrainian ports in Crimea it seized in 2014, including the Ukrainian vessels that were docked there at the time. With this, Russia had the option to bombard cities, land troops, and block all sea exports. This capability to project power was a key factor in the peninsular annexation. Ukraine didn’t have anything that could be called an actual navy. But now Ukraine is using new tactics against Russian ships.
The tactics have evolved too, from simple swarm techniques to combined strikes with different types of air and sea-borne units working in unison.
Kirill Mikhailov from the Conflict Intelligence Group said that the Ukrainians learned how to use one drone or group of drones to break gaps in Russian defenses, for the others to slip through.
A single attack might include breakthrough groups to tie up or take out enemy defenses and several strike groups hitting the main target from air and sea to do most of the damage, while support or observation units lurk out of sight nearby. Ukrainian drone strikes now resemble classic combined arms naval/amphibious operations, except remote-controlled.
He said Russia’s admirals are failing to keep up with these changes as their mentality is circumscribed by their wealth of legacy equipment. They’d rather try to make their old stuff work than scratch start a parallel development program into naval drones.
Ukraine is continuing to innovate, constantly upgrading these designs, with the latest generation of Magura, the V5, put to water in recent months. Ukraine has also unveiled a new boat-type drone called the Stalker 5, which is designed to operate more within the river environment of the Dnipro. It has a larger carrying capacity, which would allow it to evacuate the wounded, or be fitted with a very big bomb to deliver to the enemy.
“Other, non-Black Sea players are also closely following events in the Black Sea. Some with obvious concern, others with undisguised interest.”, Kirill Mikhailov said.
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